Climate Change Impact - Part 11 - Turkey
Climate Change Impact
Part 11: Example –Turkey
Summary
The Yesilirmak Basin in northern
Turkey drains into the Black Sea. The
basin is currently highly developed for hydropower and irrigation. The impact
of climate change will be to reduce annual flow. Currently snow melt in late
spring provides water at the start of the irrigation season; critically, the
biggest reduction in flow will be during this period. To maintain current
levels of irrigation will require additional storage.
Introduction
The Yeşilirmak basin in northern Turkey has a drainage area
of around 36,000 km2 and flows into the Black Sea. The basin is mountainous
with parts of the basin reaching elevations in excess of 2,000m. The aim of the
study was to develop an understanding of the water balance of the basin and
then to examine the potential effects of climate change on the basin. The basin
is heavily developed, mainly for irrigation and hydropower.
Figure 1 Yesilirmak River Basin |
Current situation
Meteorological data were available from two sources. The
first source was supplied locally and covered the period 1961 to 2007. The
second was from an internationally supported internet site which provided data
from 1931 to 2006. There was considerable overlap in data from the two sources
and we were able to create a consistent data set from 1931 to 2007. Annual
precipitation reaches 1000mm/annum near the coast and is less than 500 mm/annum
inland. Average annual temperature is around 14 °C to the north of basin and less
than 10 °C in higher areas inland.
From 1931 to 2007 the data showed little trend in annual
precipitation or temperature.
Figure 2 Monthly precipitation - Yesilirmak basin |
For both
precipitation and temperature there were differences in seasonal values. Winter
precipitation and spring temperature both showed increases.
Figure 3 Seasonal temperature - Yesilirmak basin |
Reservoirs in the basin play an important part in flow
regulation. The total storage is over 5,000 million m3. This is
close to the annual average flow of 5,500 million m3/annum. The calculation of
the effect of reservoirs was complicated by three factors:
- Little information was available on their operating rules.
- There are transfers of water between basins
- When a reservoir is newly constructed water is used to fill the reservoirs.
Annual irrigation use is 500 million m3/annum and is, of
course, concentrated in the summer months when flows are at their lowest.
Climate change
The basin was modelled in two ways. First a water resources
model was developed which simulated as far as possible the progressive changes
in water use and reservoir storage over the period with data. This model was
used to estimate the natural flow in the basin. Secondly the monthly
rainfall/runoff model HYSIMM was used to simulate the flows in the basin.
The climate projections were based on the IPCC task force on
Data and Scenario Support 2007 report “General Guidelines on the Use of
Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment”. The SresA1B
scenario, which assumes rapid growth and a balanced use of energy sources, was
used
As an initial appraisal of the potential impacts of climate
change, the simulated flow for the period 1980 to 1999 was compared with
simulated flow for projected values for the period 2080 to 2099, i.e. 100 years
in the future relative to observed.
The following chart shows three lines. The blue line is the
observed average monthly flow – or, more accurately, the estimated natural
flows after accounting for storage and abstractions. The red line shows the
flow simulated by the hydrological model. The third line, in green shows the
projected monthly flow after the impact of climate change. The impact of
climate change is represented by the difference between the red and green
lines.
Figure 4 Monthly flows - with and without climate change |
This shows that two importance changes are projected:
- Overall flows will be lower,
- Currently the peak of flow is in late spring which coincides with the start of the growing season. In effect, snow in the mountains is acting as a reservoir. In the future, the peak flow will be in winter.
The conclusion is that to maintain current levels of
agriculture additional reservoir storage will be needed.
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