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Showing posts from July, 2012

CLIMATE AND THE ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION

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1. Introduction I would guess that whoever you are, if you were to be told that all the 0.75 °C increase in global temperatures over the past 150 years was due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases but that temperatures over the next three decades would increase by only 0.1 °C you would have mixed reactions. If you were a sceptic you would scoff at the suggestion that greenhouse gases could have such an impact but welcome the suggestion that temperature would only increase marginally. On the other hand if you had built a career, as a climate scientist or a politician, preparing people for large temperature increases you would be horrified at the idea of small temperature increases but be more sanguine about the attribution of the temperature increase to greenhouse gases. What I describe is a model which seems to suggest that this is in fact the case. Whilst I can’t really believe it myself, I can’t find anything wrong with it. Maybe you can. This post is about the Atlantic