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IPCC TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT REPORT 5 – THESIS 2

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Thesis: That the discussion of sea level rise in IPCC TAR4 has much to recommend as a model for other topics. Those of you who have already seen our first thesis, on global temperatures, may have got the impression that we were out to ‘get’ the IPCC. This is not the case. We are self-financed and have no agenda. As we say on our Home Page: “We are trying to prove only one thing: rational debate is possible when participants have access to the facts.” In TAR4 the increase in sea level is presented in the following graph. This graph appears as Figure 3 in the Summary for Policy Makers and elsewhere (We have extracted the sea levels from a compound graph which also showed Global Average Temperatures and Northern Hemisphere snow cover). It combines levels from tide gauges (circular dots) and satellite measurements (the red line). In the summary the accompanying text says: “Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3] mm per year over 1961 to 2003. The rate was fast

IPCC TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT REPORT 5 – INTRODUCTION

At the start of 2010 the IPCC attracted a lot of criticism for three projected climate change impacts which were poorly supported. These were that Himalayan glaciers might disappear by 2035, that African agricultural yields could fall by 50% and that 40% of the Amazonian rain-forest could react drastically to changes in precipitation. In each case the source of the claim was speculative and lacking sound evidence. The IPCC’s response was that in such a major series of documents it was well nigh impossible to avoid a few mistakes. To some extent this is true but the fact the errors all erred on the side of exaggerating the effects of climate change says much about the IPCC’s lack of balance. We believe however that there are more serious criticisms which can be leveled against the IPCC. Science is only as good as its data and in many cases the data presented by the IPCC tell only part of the story. Since we are criticising the IPCC we should make out own position clear. So where do we s